|Intelligence and Learning|
Smart Computers - Artificial Intelligence
The central feature of intelligence is the ability to understand what is really going on out there and to respond to events with successful and adaptive behavior. Intelligence is built from subsystems that sense, decide, remember and act. It is fashionable to speak in terms of "mental abilities" and to list a number of different mental abilities in terms of educational concerns, such as reading, writing, math and music. The brain is modular with a host of different functions contributing to intelligence. We expect and do find different arrangements of mental abilities in different people. If you consider the intelligence test of life overall, then you recognize that there is a range of abilities in any human population.
When you do not know exactly how digital computers work and how programmers utilize the hardware, it is easy to be fooled into believing that computers are intelligent or will be soon. When you know exactly how digital computing works, you are less likely to believe in computers that will develop their own intelligence. In fact, a programmer knows that he or she has to tell the computer exactly what to do in precise and annoying detail. Without expert programming, digital computers are dumb machines. The propaganda of big, affluent tech companies promoting their special version of artificial intelligence is one of the growing hazards of intellectual life. High Tech AI is more artificial than intelligent. AI is 95% nonsense.
Much of the polemics written about “intelligent” computers becomes irrelevant when you realize that the real power of computing lies in the software and not in the machine. Software is an expression of human intelligence. Computer software is a new and powerful way of distributing human intelligence. Computer programs collect and distribute the knowledge and the skills of the smartest people who are in the minority to large numbers of less skilled users who are in the majority. Specialized knowledge and procedural understanding can be programmed in a user-friendly manner.
A simple calculator that costs a few dollars stores arithmetic algorithms and empowers even illiterate users to do calculations quickly and accurately. Problem-oriented hand held devices can be programmed to deploy any number of useful algorithms. This means that a small number of engineers, programmers, and experts that contribute algorithms can project their intelligence and knowledge into the world, reaching millions of even billions of people who otherwise would not be able to solve complex problems. Applications include communications, navigation, architecture, engineering, music composition, recording, video production, digital animation, business and finance, currency conversion, self-monitoring and self-diagnosis. Neither the machines, nor most of the users have the intelligence and knowledge to program the algorithms, but the combination of programmer, machine, and user forms a functional triad that can be reiterated without limitation.
The abstract reasoning that underlies advanced mathematics is more interesting
and is independent of the ability to calculate. Most mathematicians are happy to
do calculations on a digital machine and do not feel the least bit threatened
that some computer will take over their job of abstract reasoning. Digital
computers have no sense of meaning, cannot perceive and are only able to make
simple robotic decisions about the data they receive. They can store images
accurately and will faithfully recall stored data unless a malfunction
intervenes. Output procedures are echoes of input procedures. The biggest
advance in programming involves searching thru large databases to find the right
answers to specific questions. Goggle`s search engines represent state of the
art algorithms, designed to deliver relevant results to search inquiries.
Failure to achieve relevance remains a persistent search problem. Google
requires teams of programmers working full time everyday to monitor and refine
The Fantasy of HalPopular science fiction postulates that digital computers will become intelligent sentient beings and take over the world. Arthur Clark’s Science fiction novel and Stanley Kubrick’s movie version of 2001 were exciting in 1968. I was thrilled the sense of motion during the docking of shuttle with the space station, transformed by Strauss’ Blue Danube Waltz. The spacecraft in the movie was operated by HAL, the computer. HAL represented the possibility of computers developing human-like artificial intelligence. In 1968, anything was possible, but with subsequent developments in computer science, we now know that living intelligence is so developed, complex and profound that any success with machine programming is disappointing and rudimentary. We now know that real intelligence lies well beyond the ability of present and future digital machines. In AI there is more artificial and less intelligence.
David Stork, a machine intelligence researcher wrote: “Perhaps a dark side of HAL’s legacy is to have fixed an anthropomorphic view of artificial intelligence so firmly in the minds of a generation of researchers… But those idiot savants (AI programs) did not show even the slightest signs of achieving general competence. In the subsequent AI winter -- brought on by the end of a military research spree as well as the inevitable collision between venture capitalists and reality – only the mechanical cockroaches survived.“
Mark Tildon of Los Almos Laboratories makes small robots from spare parts derived from discarded portable cassette players. A few transistors in his robots handle the task of moving limbs and solving problems such as getting past obstacles or dealing with broken parts. His robots resemble insects and move like insects. Tildon observes that living brains solve the complex tasks of surviving as free beings in an ever-changing world by using simple and compact circuits. He observes that efforts to make free-living robots using digital computing fail because even simple tasks quickly grow in complexity and require state of the art computing power.
Digital robotsRobots live in a simple domain with help from teams of humans with PhDs. They may never compete well with living intelligence, even at a rudimentary level. While the work done on robotics and artificial intelligence is interesting and programmable machines are everywhere. Progress to date informs us that it will be exceeding difficult to achieve the digital equivalent of the free-living intelligence of a bee or ant. All the creature on the planet have their own version of intelligence often with abilities that humans lack. There is an important difference between the programmable machines that make mass production and financial systems possible and real intelligence. Attempts to create AI and self-sufficient robotics helps us to appreciate that the ant brain is a marvel of computation and miniaturization. We may eventually progress to computational devices based on different materials and strategies that are more brain-like and achieve better and unexpected results. At this writing, no one knows how to do this. The search continues with the study of animal brains.
Despite the science fiction roots and unrealistic arguments (often delusional), machine intelligence enthusiasts are more visible and vocal than ever before. Big companies with fantasies of making more money with fewer people are promoting unrealistic expectations. Groupies with AI fantasies hold meetings that have the giddy feel of a born-again religious revival. One god-substitute is singularity:” Techno-Rapture. A black hole in the Extropian worldview whose gravity is so intense that no light can be shed on what lies beyond it. … the human mind is not the final word. Someday, human technology will advance to the point of being able to improve on the underlying hardware (the brain) - an event known as the Singularity. Depending on how much futurism people have been exposed to, they tend to imagine different candidate technologies, “different timescales, and different outcomes for humanity. The Singularity Institute's favored technology is computer-based synthetic minds - "Artificial Intelligence" or "AI" - which we think can be developed quickly and with an outcome favorable to humanity … The Singularity Institute seriously intends to build a true general intelligence, possessed of all the key subsystems of human intelligence, plus design features unique to AI. We do not hold that all the complex features of the human mind are "emergent", or that intelligence is the result of some simple architectural principle, or that general intelligence will appear if we simply add enough data or computing power. “
There is room for fantasy and speculative thinking; however, no-one needs to take the AI view or timetable seriously. Some of the worst future predictions claim that digital circuitry is becoming faster, denser and less expensive and therefore “supercomputers’ will soon emerge that have greater processing power than the human brain. Some even suggest that massive parallel processing is superior to brain computational abilities.
There is no knowledge that allows anyone to assess brain processing ability and no basis to compare living brains with digital computers. One of the aspects of “futuristic speculations” that amazes me is the lack of knowledge about present circumstances. Another aspect that concerns me the most is the ignorance of life processes. I doubt that any machine will soon display free-living competence. Ant brains are amazing but digital robots are disappointing. Robots often replace humans in assembly lines and robot-like devices are added to automobiles, airplane and ships to supplement human control. But robots cannot leave their workplaces, find their way home, make dinner and have meaningful conversations with other robots or humans. The challenge for future computer designers is to make robots that do as well as an insect in a free-living competition. This task will require a new computing technology, lots of money and the rest of this century to achieve. Unless, of course, some genius discovers and copies brain circuitry that underlies insect competence. I do not believe that digital computers even of great speed and complexity will attain consciousness, nor do I believe that robots controlled by digital computers will ever come close to achieving the self-organizing, free-living intelligence of a human.
I have been reading essays on machine intelligence from the Silicon Valley pundits and successful entrepreneurs such as Elon Musk. These are people who live in a virtual reality of their own making and invent terms and phrases such as “superhuman machine intelligence.” They tend to familiar with digital computer programming and have unrealistic fantasies about the future. They refer to neural algorithms in the brain that can be replicated electronically. Neural networks are favored candidates for learning machines because they can self-modify within a strict set of limitations. A neural network is just a bunch of silicon chips until it is trained by a human programmer. Once trained, it can receive data and produce output without further intervention. A neural net may produce something of value or output gibberish. A human monitor must observe and regulate the out coming data, deciding on its value. The advantage of neural networks for unrealistic speculators is that they cannot see what is going on inside the machine and hope that something worthwhile is happening. Paranoid speculators believe that evil output may become the result of an unregulated machine. The idea of deep thinking computers build around silicon neural nets is just another scam.
I am concerned about human treachery but have no concern about machines independently developing destructive intentions that could rival or match their human makers. Evil is a human invention. Humans already make world-destroying machines. This is not a future scenario. Once launched, a world-destroying machine such as an intercontinental ballistic missile carrying hydrogen bombs is self-sufficient. The ICBM is a dumb robot that after launch can find its way to its target without further assistance from human programmers. A bevy of dumb ICBM robots with hydrogen bomb warheads can destroy human civilization. The combination of bad and dumb humans and dumb robots is to be feared. This is history and no one has to wait for future malevolent robots to be constructed.