Global Warming

Much attention has been paid to environmental pollution and the effects of specific toxic and carcinogenic molecules in our environments. Revelations of major alarming atmospheric changes - the greenhouse effect and ozone holes - have served to remind us of our destructive effect overall on planet Earth. We suffer individually and collectively from our own pollution.

Developments in the media made "green" the slogan for action to limit the adverse effects of air pollution. The media often suggested that this is a relatively new consensus that there is an environmental crisis. They excused people who have ignored the effect of greenhouse gases on climates global warming over the past 40 years. Some know what is really going on out there, but most people do not know or know but deny the obvious for selfish reasons.

Green refers to the color of chlorophyll in plants. Human action destroys plants and replaces healthy ecosystems with monocultures that are unsustainable. Another slogan that emerged was "save planet earth." Humans will not save the planet. The task for humans is to stop destroying the environments that sustain us. If we fail, the planet will do just fine without us.

The model of of atmospheric dynamics that has emerged from a high tech, multidisciplinary study of the planet is complex. Important players in atmospheric dynamics are:

1. The sun that supplies all the energy.
2. The atmosphere regulates input and output of the sun's energy
3  Oceans store and distribute heat while supplying water to the atmosphere.
4.The green biomass in the ocean and on land supplies oxygen and consumes carbon dioxide.
5. Ice fields subtract water from the oceans and store it at temperatures below 0 degrees C.
5. Humans change all the variables except the sun.

Glass covering greenhouses admits light and heat energy but blocks some of the infrared heat energy that is radiated back. The green house stays warmer than the external environment. In the atmosphere, a similar effect occurs.

Global warming means that the earth retains more of the sun's heat over time. The increased heating of greenhouse gases is reduced by increased reflection of the suns' energy reaching the earth by clouds and particle pollution in the atmosphere. Without particle pollution, the heating effects would be greater.

The greenhouse effect from increased carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane during the 20th century is the most conspicuous man-made change. The reduction in forest biomass and the exposure of ocean plankton to increase UV radiation are also concerns.

Heat drives weather and increased heat means increased turbulence in the atmosphere. The consequences vary with the distribution of this extra heat and its effect on ocean and air circulation patterns. We can accept paradoxical weather results as the extra heat makes weather systems more turbulent and changes air and water circulation patterns.

Much attention has been paid to estimating and predicting the average temperature increase of the atmosphere as a whole. Long-term predictions are best guesses and may be misleading. Local heating effects are observable as wind and rain -- more heat produces more extreme weather events. In our view, the main concern should be the effect of  heat retention on local climates right now.It is possible to imagine increasingly anomalous weather and increasing loss of life and property from greenhouse gas accumulation with little or no change in the average temperature of the planet, although, we do expect slow progressive increase in average temperatures.

You can increase the temperature in some areas and decrease in others and you can alternate - the differential effect will drive storms and precipitation in unusual ways. By the end of 1998, we knew that weather extremes were becoming commonplace and loss of life and property from adverse weather increased. These more destructive weather events promise to continue. There is no need to wait until 2050 to find out what is going to happen.

Living on the Edge  People in California  are specially adapted to the uncertainty of nature - earthquakes have always taken their toll; however when you add the toxicity of air pollution and agricultural chemicals, to soil erosion, floods, fires, and social unrest you have a formula for an unstable ecosystem that will become less habitable rather than more as the years proceed. The predictions of climate changes that might occur because of more greenhouse gases are coming true - not fully and completely, but convincingly. 

Other comfortable and affluent North Americans are having trouble realizing that they are also living on an ecological edge. More of them are seeing homes and businesses under water, on-fire, blown away,  crushed by heavy snow or deprived of a supportive infrastructure. Farmers watch helplessly as their crops die from lack water. Water reservoirs in the desert states are low to dry. The US is under seige, not by terrorists, but by extreme weather.

Food-growing lands are in jeopardy; it may be difficult to sustain the level of agricultural productivity we have enjoyed in the 20th century. New health hazards will emerge - some predicable; others will be unpleasant surprises. Topsoils are lost and minerals are leached from the land. New health hazards emerge after floods - things are never really the same again.

Insurance Costs  Insurance companies are either increasing rates, limiting coverage or going out of business. Hurricane Andrew was the first of the worst weather disasters in US history that caused 16.5 billion dollars in insured loses, bankrupting smaller insurance companies. The UN panel on climate change estimated that windstorm damage increased from $500 million in the 60s to over $11 billion in the 90s and the annual bill in the 21st century may be hundreds of billions of dollars per year. Before 1987, storms had never caused insured loses exceeding $1 billion; there have been a succession of $100 billion-plus disasters since.

Political Inaction Political action should swift and definitive, but of course, it is not. Political processes are inherently irresponsible, as politicians are short-term administrators who tend to be inexperienced and poorly informed. In all fairness to politicians,  some of them began their careers with high hopes of improving the world, but discovered as they matured in politics that they could only court the favor of those with vested interests, power, money and influence. The realist might say that the politician can only do what is political expedient and this usually means what is in his or her best interest in the next two to four years. The task of leading fellow Homo Sapiens from a self-destructive path requires an intelligent and compassionate superhero that we only find in the movies.

According to Maurice Strong who headed the 1992 Rio Earth Summit stated; "Overall we haven't made the fundamental course of change promised in Rio. The process of deterioration has continued and the forces that drive that deterioration have continued. Five years later, the challenge is even greater." At that summit 153 nations signed treaties to reduce global warming, save endangered species and foster sustainable development.

The November 1997 Kyoto meeting to determine emissions policy for the countries of the world has been a great disappointment and only confirmed our basic understanding that governments are not going to act responsibly and man-made climate problems are going to be with us for decades to come.

Disruptions in ecosystems, economic systems, political systems are inevitable. The changes we are causing in the Earth's biosphere will return to harm us individually and collectively. The cost of these adverse changes will continue to grow and will exceed by far the cost of remedial action. We are all like smokers who know that smoking causes cancer but we are not willing to stop smoking. Our only hope is that the adverse effects will not catch up with us for several years.

Changes in human behavior must come from all people who sense danger, seek to understand their options and change spontaneously. The same issues come up in personal and public health concerns - constructive change is required. Ignorance and denial obstruct constructive change; wishful thinking and fantasy solutions become more popular. Self-interest and greed dominate the political process.

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